First Home Buyers Lift Weak Housing Market

An article from Domain today looks at First Home Buyers filling the void investors left after the wake of credit lending tightening. The average loan size is 350k for the First Home Buyer group, assuming 20 percent deposit (up to 100k), then people are looking at 300k to 600k homes near capital cities (where jobs are located). Since little housing in Sydney is in that price range despite price falls, or within reasonable commutes, then i presume all of this activity is happening in Melbourne's south west, probably Geelong or Werribee, where urbanisation is growing fastest in the country.

Domain 2018

The only challenge now is that banks are tightening credit lending, your household income needs to be 150k+, and expenses are calculated properly (good job royal commission, fixing the rort). Also worthy note is that historically tightening credit leads to property values falling, plus flat wages, a global trade war, increasing costs of living, weak rental yields and potential rising interest rates mean that our loans will probably get more expensive over the life of the loan (unlike what our parents experienced).

Another risk is that many young families buy a home, assuming you would pay it off on two full time incomes, then a few years in they drop one income to raise a child, immediately putting household finances into the red.

Got to be realistic here. The future looks bleak.




2018, journal